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09.04.2026 08:50 AMThe price test at 158.35 coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator had just started to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair fell by 40 pips.
However, the dollar then rose against the yen after the publication of the Federal Reserve's minutes, in which the committee acknowledged heightened uncertainty due to the conflict in the Middle East and risks to employment. Nearly all Fed chairpersons supported maintaining the current rate, with only one member voting for a 0.25% cut. The Fed minutes were interpreted by the market as a signal that the Fed is ready to maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy. Given the geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on global energy markets, as well as the slowing pace of global economic growth, the U.S. central bank seeks to avoid premature moves. In this context, upcoming economic data, especially on U.S. inflation and employment, will be crucial for the future direction of monetary policy, which will significantly impact the USD/JPY pair.
We must not forget the geopolitical tensions that are gradually rising again. The failed U.S.-Iran negotiations quickly restored demand for the dollar and will lead to a sell-off of the Japanese yen.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on executing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at an entry point around 159.04 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 159.44 (thicker green line on the chart). At 159.44, I plan to exit the long positions and immediately sell in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and substantial pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 158.28 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to resistance levels of 159.04 and 159.44 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking the level of 158.82 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 158.51 level, where I plan to exit the short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips back from that level). It's better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.04 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to support levels of 158.82 and 158.51 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
