Trade analysis and recommendations for trading the euro

The first test of 1.1697 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test of 1.1697 shortly afterward coincided with the MACD being in the overbought zone, which allowed scenario No. 2 (selling the euro) to play out. As a result, the pair fell only about 10 points.

After yesterday's rise triggered by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the euro today showed growth in the first half of the day but failed to break above the upper boundary of the weekly range. However, despite this consolidation, overall sentiment in the currency market still favors the euro. Market participants eagerly await the release of key U.S. economic data that may influence further price dynamics.

Weekly U.S. data on initial jobless claims, the trade balance, and wholesale inventories will be crucial. A detailed analysis of jobless claims will provide insight into the state of the U.S. labor market. An increase in claims may indicate slower hiring and a likely rise in unemployment, which in turn may negatively affect the dollar. A decline in claims, conversely, indicates a stable labor market and potential support for consumer demand. The trade balance, representing the difference between exports and imports, is an important indicator of the global competitiveness of U.S. goods and services. Weak figures would also lead to renewed EUR/USD growth.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches around 1.1715 (green line on the chart) with the goal of rising to 1.1755. At 1.1755, I plan to exit the market and also open a reverse sell trade, expecting a 30–35-point move from the entry point. Strong euro growth can be expected as the bullish market continues. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.1694 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1715 and 1.1755 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching 1.1694 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1655, where I plan to exit the market and instantly buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point move from the level). Pressure on the pair will return only if U.S. labor market data is very strong. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and only beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.1715 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.1694 and 1.1655 can be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price spikes. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are, from the outset, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.