The EUR/USD pair continued its decline on Friday toward the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1440 after consolidating below the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1577. Thus, the downward movement may continue today, while trader activity has remained fairly low in recent days. Bears are once again on the offensive, as there are no signs of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. Their momentum is somewhat limited, but bulls currently have no opportunities for counterattacks.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains clear. The last completed upward wave exceeded the previous peak by only a few points, while the new downward wave has not yet broken the previous low. Thus, the trend is still slowly and uncertainly shifting toward a bullish one.

The actions of Donald Trump in the Middle East have triggered large-scale military activity in the region involving multiple countries, which allows the U.S. dollar to expect further growth.

On Friday, the news background was very weak and, as usual, had no impact on trader sentiment. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in below expectations in March at just 53.3 points. However, the dollar strengthened throughout the day.

At this point, the same conclusion can be repeated almost daily: traders are not interested in economic data—they are focused solely on geopolitics. Since last week Trump stated that his priority is to gain control over Iranian oil, everything becomes clearer. The conflict is not about nuclear threats to Europe or the U.S.; it is about money, power, and control over resources—particularly energy.

Thus, it can be assumed that the war will continue. The only question is its intensity. The more intense the military actions in the Middle East, the stronger the U.S. dollar will grow. The more countries become involved, the stronger the dollar will rise. The higher oil prices climb, the stronger the dollar becomes.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1617 and reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar. A decline began toward the 100.0% retracement level at 1.1474, which is currently ongoing.

A bullish trend will become possible only after the euro closes above the descending trend channel. The first target for bulls is 1.1706. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed another 12,861 long positions and 1,008 short positions. Over six weeks, the total bullish advantage has effectively disappeared.

• Total long positions: 200,000
• Total short positions: 190,000

Six weeks ago, bulls held more than a twofold advantage among non-commercial traders.

Overall, in the long term, large players still show strong interest in the euro. However, global events—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment.

At present, all market attention is focused on the Middle East, where the conflict continues to intensify and expand geographically. Therefore, in the near term, the EUR/USD exchange rate will depend not on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy, nor on economic data, but on the war in Iran. And for now, the dollar is benefiting the most from this situation.

Economic Calendar (U.S. & Eurozone):

Germany – Consumer Price Index (12:00 UTC)

On March 30, the economic calendar contains only one entry, which is of little interest. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday is expected to be weak or absent.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Sell positions were possible after consolidation below 1.1577 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1440. These trades can still be held today. Buy positions may be considered after the pair closes above 1.1577, targeting 1.1696.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.1577–1.2082 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.