*) see also: InstaTrade trading indicators for DJIA (INDU)

Futures on the Dow Jones (INDU on the trading platform) fell by more than 1.4% — roughly 500 points — to around 48,100.00 in European hours ahead of the regular session. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 1.5% and 1.85%, respectively.

The so-called Fear & Greed index remains in "Fear" territory at 38 (out of 100).

Reasons for fall: perfect storm

1. Military escalation in the Middle East

Over the weekend, the United States and Israel carried out coordinated strikes on targets in Iran, reportedly killing Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei and up to 40 senior Iranian officials. Tehran responded with air strikes on US bases in the region and on Israeli territory.

A critical factor was the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil shipments. The IRGC naval forces announced a halt to shipments, allowing movement only for Iranian tankers.

US President Donald Trump said that military operations would continue "as long as it takes" and did not rule out that the conflict could last "four to five weeks."

1. Commodity market reaction

• WTI oil jumped by more than 9–10% to $73.00/bbl
• Brent spiked by nearly 13% above $80.00/bbl
• Gold rose by more than 2% above $5,400.00/oz

1. Tech sector under pressure

Beyond geopolitics, uncertainty around rapid AI adoption continues to weigh on the market. On Friday, Wall Street closed lower on fears that rapid AI deployment could displace traditional software vendors. The Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.92% on Friday, and February was the index's weakest month in a year.

Outlook: road ahead

The surge in oil prices raises the risk of renewed inflationary pressure, which could push out expectations for interest rate cuts. According to CME FedWatch, markets price in a 95.5% probability of rates staying unchanged in March.

At the same time, Fed Governor Stephen Miran has called for a 100bp rate cut, arguing that persistently high rates reflect distortions in inflation measurement.

Technically, a break of Dow support in the 48,500.00–48,300.00 zone would open the way to the next test near 47,480.00 (EMA144 on the daily chart). Immediate resistance sits at 48,950.00 (EMA50 and the lower line of the daily ascending channel) and 49,190.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

Possible scenarios

• Escalation (bearish). Further widening of the conflict and a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil toward $100.00/bbl or higher, intensifying inflationary pressure and driving a DJIA correction to 46,700.00–46,250.00.
• Diplomatic (corrective). The start of mediated talks could reduce the geopolitical premium and trigger a technical bounce toward 49,500.00–49,700.00.
• Stabilization. Markets adapt to the new reality, with indices consolidating in a 48,000.00–49,500.00 range until the situation clarifies.

*) more: DJIA (INDU): Outlook for 02.03.2026

Conclusion

The US equity market has entered a period of extreme volatility in which geopolitical risk outweighs fundamentals and technical analysis. The next few days are critical: escalation could deepen the correction, while any signs of de-escalation would prompt a sharp rebound. Investors should exercise caution and treat the current market as a high-risk zone rather than an opportunity for aggressive buying.