On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair opened on Monday with a strong gap down, but immediately reversed in favor of the pound and showed strong growth toward the resistance level of 1.3526–1.3539. A rebound from this zone on Tuesday will favor the US dollar and lead to some decline toward the support level of 1.3437–1.3465. If the pair consolidates above the 1.3526–1.3539 level, traders can expect continued growth toward the next resistance level of 1.3604–1.3620.

The wave situation is once again turning "bullish." The latest upward wave has broken the previous peak, while the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Geopolitics had given bears almost complete dominance in the market for two months, then the geopolitical background began to shift in a more favorable direction, giving bulls more confidence. For several weeks, the pound traded sideways between the levels of 1.3177 and 1.3465, but yesterday it managed to break out of this range.

The news background on Monday can be called positive, but for bears rather than bulls. I think many were surprised by the pound's growth during the day, considering that it fell sharply at the market open. Why did bulls launch a new attack if there were no positive geopolitical developments? I believe the market has shifted its focus from daily news to the broader geopolitical "plateau." In other words, traders are now assessing the overall situation rather than individual events and news. Looking at the bigger picture, little has changed over the past three days. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by US military ships has not changed anything in the oil market, negotiations between Iran and the US may resume soon, and no new strikes in the Middle East have been recorded in recent days. Thus, the parties are adhering to a two-week ceasefire, which gives hope for the end of the conflict. According to many military experts, US naval forces will not be able to hold the Strait of Hormuz for long. Escalation is possible, as Iran will likely attempt to break the blockade and possibly strike US ships. However, this has not happened yet. Oil prices at the beginning of the new week are relatively stable.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the descending trend channel, and after several weeks of hesitation, the bulls have finally gone on the offensive. Consolidation above the resistance level of 1.3439–1.3482 allows expectations of further pound growth toward the levels of 1.3540 and 1.3664. Bearish divergences are forming on the CCI and RSI indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bearish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 3,960, while short positions decreased by 217. The gap between long and short positions is now essentially: 47,000 vs. 104,000. For six consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders have actively increased short positions and reduced longs, leading to a strong imbalance between long and short positions. In recent weeks, bears have dominated, which comes as no surprise given the geopolitical situation.

I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central banks' monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, there was first a correction while maintaining a bullish trend, and then the conflict in the Middle East began escalating almost daily. Geopolitics remains the only reason for the strengthening of the US dollar.

Economic calendar for the US and the UK:

• US – Weekly change in ADP employment (12:15 UTC)
• US – Producer Price Index (12:30 UTC)

On April 14, the economic calendar contains only two minor entries. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday will be minimal. Traders continue to focus primarily on geopolitical news.

GBP/USD forecast and trading advice:

Selling the pair is possible today if there is a rebound on the hourly chart from the 1.3526–1.3539 level, with a target of 1.3437–1.3465. Buying was possible upon a close above the 1.3437–1.3465 level with a target of 1.3526–1.3539 (this target has been reached). New buying opportunities arise upon a close above 1.3526–1.3539 with a target of 1.3604–1.3620.

Fibonacci retracement levels are built from 1.3341–1.3866 on the hourly chart and from 1.3012–1.3868 on the 4-hour chart.