Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1750 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move upwards from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point to buy euros. As a result, the pair rose by more than 30 pips.

Today, traders will focus on data from the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI and the Sentix Investor Confidence Index in the first half of the day. The PMI indices for the manufacturing sector in the Eurozone, published this morning, are expected to demonstrate stabilization or even slight improvement. Despite ongoing challenges, such as high energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty, new orders and production volumes may show more resilient dynamics than previously projected. Positive dividend dynamics from the manufacturing sector, which is traditionally a powerful driver of the European economy, may provide additional momentum for the euro.

Investor sentiment, as reflected in the Sentix index, may also play a key role. If the confidence indicator rises, it will signal a rising risk appetite among market participants, which, in turn, will positively affect the euro.

Particular attention will be paid to the speech of Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel during the Eurogroup meeting. His comments regarding inflation trends, the European Central Bank's monetary policy, and economic growth prospects in the Eurozone could significantly influence the euro's exchange rate. Any hints at a more hawkish stance on inflation will be carefully analyzed by the market.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought at around 1.1745 (green line on the chart), with a target increase to 1.1779. At point 1.1779, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro can only be anticipated after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from there.

Scenario #2: I also intend to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1723 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase to the opposite levels of 1.1745 and 1.1779 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the level of 1.1723 (red line on the chart) is reached. The target will be at 1.1689, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today may return only within a small correction. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1745 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1723 and 1.1689 can be expected.

What is on the Chart:

• The thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• The thick green line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• The thick red line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.