Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of 158.54 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

In the second half of the day, the U.S. market has no economic data scheduled, giving the yen an opportunity to correct against the dollar after USD/JPY strengthened again during today's European session. The absence of data deprives the U.S. currency of new catalysts for a recovery, while the bullish sentiment that recently emerged following the weak U.S. labor-market report may allow yen buyers to take the initiative.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point is reached around 158.94 (the thin green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 159.37 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.37, I will close the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the level. The pair may rise today, but the upward potential is rather limited. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 158.67 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 158.94 and 159.37 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the price breaks below 158.67 (the thin red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 158.24, where I will close the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a reverse move of 20–25 points from the level. Downward pressure on the pair may return today if the central bank intervenes. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is only beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 158.94 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 158.67 and 158.24 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market-entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is generally best to remain out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during a news release, always use stop orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire trading account very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large position sizes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.