Review of macroeconomic releases:

Several macroeconomic releases are scheduled for Thursday, but the market will likely ignore them (about 90% probability). Germany will publish the second estimate of August inflation; the US will release the producer-price index, existing-home sales, and initial jobless claims. Of that list, only the producer-price index holds any real interest. Many experts treat it as important and meaningful, but we disagree. It influences the final consumer-price index, yet the market prices in headline inflation rather than its components. The August CPI report will be published tomorrow.

Review of fundamental events:

The key fundamental event on Thursday is the European Central Bank meeting and Christine Lagarde's press conference. The ECB decision is effectively known — all three key rates will be raised by 25 bp, which should support the euro. However, recall that the market has been actively ignoring ECB meetings in recent months. Even the first monetary tightening in 2026 did not provoke a strong market reaction. Thus, we do not expect a "storm" today; Lagarde's remarks will matter more than the rate hike itself.

The geopolitical backdrop remains poor. The US and Iran are not negotiating; the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or partially closed; Yemeni Houthis continue blockading Saudi Arabia and actively strike its infrastructure. Donald Trump has vowed an unprecedented economic operation to "destroy" Iran and threatens sanctions against countries that interact with it. So far, no one supports Trump's plan to destroy Iran, and whether it will be implemented is unknown. Over the weekend, Iran and the US exchanged strikes again, which the market largely ignored.

General conclusions:

During the penultimate trading day of the week, currency pairs may return to their usual intraday dynamics. Trade the euro from the 1.1655–1.1665 area and the pound from 1.3587–1.3598. The downward correction in the euro and the pound may already be complete, and this week's macro and fundamental events could create renewed pressure on the US dollar.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range (flat), any pair can generate many false signals or may not produce any at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be acted upon only when volatility is high, and a trend line or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are too close together (within 5-20 pips), treat them as a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the right direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also provide signals.

Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.