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USD strengthens as US energy independence solidifies its safe‑haven role

USD strengthens as US energy independence solidifies its safe‑haven role

A 2% rise in the dollar index in March 2026 amid escalation in the Middle East has prompted a reassessment of macroeconomic strategies, Reuters reports. The US currency outperformed Treasuries and gold. The move forced investors to abandon hopes of a sustained dollar decline.
A stronger dollar tightens global financial conditions and slows the pace of world trade. Felipe Camargo, an economist at Oxford Economics, said a 10% appreciation in the currency may lead to global export volumes falling 6–8% below current forecasts. Emerging markets carrying dollar‑denominated debt are among the most vulnerable to the shift.
Investors have favored the dollar as a defensive asset in part because of the United States’ high level of energy independence. At the same time, Japan has lost ground due to its critical reliance on imports of increasingly expensive energy. The Swiss National Bank has publicly signaled preparations to intervene to prevent excessive appreciation in the franc.
A strong currency also erodes profits for the S&P 500 companies that derive up to 40% of revenue from overseas markets. The technology sector is particularly exposed, with foreign revenues exceeding 50% for many firms, a dynamic that removes some of the export advantages US companies enjoyed in 2025.

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