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Goldman Sachs assesses impact of World Cup on US economy

Goldman Sachs assesses impact of World Cup on US economy

The 2026 FIFA World Cup, being held across the United States, Mexico, and Canada, will have a short‑term invigorating effect on the US economy. In a special study, analysts at investment bank Goldman Sachs say the large sporting event will temporarily boost employment, retail sales, and inflation in the coming months, with the peak of the positive macro impact arriving in June. The tournament, running from June 11 to July 19, covers 11 US host cities that together account for roughly a third of national GDP and nearly a quarter of total US employment. Soccer games are expected to attract between 5 and 6 million paying fans.

Relying on historical data from past Olympic Games, Super Bowls, and the 1994 World Cup, economists forecast the event will add about 40,000 new jobs to overall employment growth in June and another 10,000 vacancies in July. Hiring will be concentrated in leisure, retail, transport, and hospitality as a result of the influx of foreign and domestic tourists. However, this gain will be temporary: in August, as short‑term service contracts end, the US economy will deal with a technical decline of roughly 15,000 jobs.

According to Goldman Sachs, the World Cup will add 0.1 percentage point to annual US GDP growth in Q2 and 0.05 percentage point in Q3, after which it will exert a modest drag at year‑end due to a high‑base effect. Retail sales growth should receive a 0.3-percentage‑point boost in June and 0.1 percentage point in July. Elevated consumer demand will locally push up prices: analysts expect higher hotel, restaurant, and transport costs in host metros to add 0.03 percentage point to core CPI and 0.04 percentage point to core PCE for June.

 


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