Trade Review and Trading Advice for the Euro

The price test at 1.1417 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for a short euro position. As a result, the pair declined by 17 points.

As the report showed, business activity in the Eurozone in June contracted at a slower pace than in previous months, to which the euro reacted with reluctant growth. The Composite PMI rose to 49.5 versus 48.5 in May, noticeably above the forecast of 49.1. This cautious optimism is supported by data from individual countries. In particular, Germany, the largest economy in the Eurozone, is showing signs of stabilization, although the manufacturing sector remains under pressure. Italian and Spanish PMI figures also exceeded expectations. However, despite these positive developments, there is still no full confidence in a near-term recovery. High inflation continues to pressure consumer spending, while geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing supply chain issues remain restraining factors.

Special attention today will be given to U.S. PMI business activity indices in the manufacturing and services sectors. These indicators serve as reliable measures of business sentiment and expectations regarding production, new orders, employment, and price changes. An increase above the 50-point threshold typically signals expansion, while readings below this level indicate contraction. Separate data from the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is also expected.

Taken together, these reports will provide a comprehensive picture of the current U.S. economic situation, which may influence the direction of the U.S. dollar.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus mainly on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, buy EUR if the price reaches the 1.1414 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.1457. At 1.1457, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback from the entry point. Further euro growth is only possible in the case of weak U.S. data. Important: before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy EUR if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1391 level, while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, a move toward 1.1414 and 1.1457 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell EUR after reaching the 1.1391 level (red line on the chart), targeting 1.1411, where I will exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure is expected to persist today. Important: before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell EUR if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1414 while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.1391 and 1.1353 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line – expected take-profit level or manual profit-taking level, as further upside above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line – expected take-profit level or manual profit-taking level, as further downside below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – entry decisions should be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note

Beginner Forex traders should approach market entry decisions with extreme caution. Before major fundamental news releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you choose to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if proper money management is not applied and large volumes are used.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally losing intraday strategy.