Analysis EUR/USD 5M

The EUR/USD currency pair showed a fairly decent rise on Friday, August 7, but it was not a dollar collapse. Essentially, the market reacted only to the one report it had been waiting for since the beginning of the week. That report was Nonfarm Payrolls. As has been said many times, the report was an absolute failure. Not only did July's figure disappoint traders, but the values for May and June were revised downward by 100,000. We still believe the dollar is falling very weakly relative to the current macroeconomic, fundamental, and geopolitical backdrop. And on Friday it also fell too little — only about 40–50 pips. Perhaps the negative effect was smoothed by the unemployment report, which fell to 4.1%. However, in our view, the unemployment rate does not reflect the real state of the labor market. Any immediate Federal Reserve rate hike can now be safely forgotten. If the labor market is knocked out again, the Fed is unlikely to raise rates, even to reduce inflation. By the way, inflation in the US is currently declining, so monetary tightening is not required.

Technically, the pair has left the sideways channel 1.1362–1.1461 after a month of ordeals and is in an uptrend. The European currency is generally rising, but we believe this is insufficient. The dollar currently has virtually no trump cards up its sleeve. The only thing saving it is that it is the world's most popular currency, which, a priori, means it cannot continuously fall.

On the 5-minute TF on Friday, one buy trading signal was formed, but it was extremely difficult to trade. The price rose by 50 pips in 5 minutes, and then the movement essentially ended. Thus, we believe that this signal should not have been traded.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated August 4. In the weekly TF illustration, it is clearly visible that the net position of non-commercial traders has become "bearish" and has substantially decreased in 2026 due to geopolitical events. Traders have been selling the euro in recent months in favor of the US dollar. Donald Trump's policy has not changed, but the dollar acted as a "reserve currency" for a while.

We still do not see any fundamental factors for the euro to strengthen, while there remain enough factors for the US currency to fall. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily super-attractive, but when this factor's "shelf life" expires, everything will return to normal. In the long term, the euro could fall as low as $1.08 (along the trend line), but the uptrend will remain relevant. And over the past months of dollar strength, the pair has not come close to that line.

The arrangement of the red and blue indicator lines indicates parity between bulls and bears. During the last reporting week, the number of longs in the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 3,100, and the number of shorts by 17,500. Accordingly, the net position for the week increased by 14,400 contracts.

Analysis EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the pair continues its uptrend after a month-long pause. The situation in the Middle East remains tense and is not improving, but this is no longer enough to trigger a new, powerful rise in the dollar. In recent months, the market ignored all the positives for the euro and focused only on the Fed's monetary policy, to which it had excessively high expectations. Now the veil is lifting from traders' eyes, so the euro has every chance of medium-term gains.

For August 10 we highlight the following levels for trading — 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362–1.1368, 1.1461–1.1473, 1.1536–1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657–1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830–1.1837, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1456) and the Kijun-sen (1.1541). Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Do not forget to move the Stop Loss to breakeven if the price has moved 15 pips in the correct direction. This will protect against possible losses if the signal proves false.

On Monday, the EU and US calendars are empty. Thus, there will be nothing for traders to react to today, and volatility may return to minimal levels.

Trading recommendations:

Today, traders may consider short positions targeting 1.1461–1.1473 if the pair consolidates below the 1.1536–1.1542 area. A rebound from the 1.1536–1.1542 area would allow opening long positions with targets of 1.1585 and 1.1657–1.1666.

Explanations for illustrations:

• Support and resistance price levels (thick red lines) indicate where the movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extremum levels (thin red lines) indicate where the price has bounced previously. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines represent trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on the COT charts shows the net position size of each category of traders.